Ahh, 2000. The dawn of a new millennium that held unlimited promise for the future. Some prognosticators and futurists seemed to expect a bit too much from the first ten years, however, and we’re now able to look back on their failed predictions and chuckle at how far off they were. Flying cars? Artificial intelligence in children’s toys? Free, universal electricity? Optimistic by any stretch of the imagination. A classic example that many people bring up is the following perennial prediction:
# A “skycar” that can take off and land like a helicopter will hit the market – San Antonio Express-News
While I don’t think flying cars will be around for decades if ever, the technology for this is just about there. However, will this technology be very attractive to drivers? After all, a minor “fender bender” in the sky will lead to almost certain death, and a collision with an airliner, say, would lead to the death of hundreds (or thousands, depending on where the crash takes place).
Not all of these predictions were so far off, however:
# “Within five years, 7 percent of the new cars sold in the U.S. will be connected to the Internet.” —- InfoMove, a manufacturer of customized Internet content, quoted in Kiplinger’s Personal Finance magazine
A bit premature, but this is becoming increasingly common today. Plus, mobile phones are interfacing with cars to use their Internet connections to pull down music, make calls, and display maps for navigation.
# We’ll see “smart mobile robots used in homes and factories.” – George Washington University Forecast think tank
We are seeing mobile robots working in homes to clean floors and gutters and mow lawns, and in businesses to make deliveries. I know a few people who have mail delivery robots in their offices.
# “Wearable computers … will free many people from offices and … commuting.” – PJ Wade, author, commentator, strategist and futurist
Mobile phones have become wearable computers and possess enough computing power to allow most of us to do our jobs. The ubiquitous BlackBerry has freed people from being forced to be at their desks to answer and respond to e-mail. Unfortunately, current mobile displays and input methods make doing other types of work impractical, if not impossible.
# Instead of a newspaper you’ll read “a small, lightweight computer the size of a cigar that scrolls out the news you choose (on) flexible, high-resolution color screens … linked wirelessly.” – Bob Ingle, president of Knight-Ridder Ventures, the investment arm of Knight-Ridder’s new-media operations
While flexible, lightweight displays are in development and have reached the prototype stage, they aren’t yet common, but are on their way. In the meantime, we have portable e-book readers that enable owners to wirelessly download their daily newspaper each morning.
Given another decade, I’d expect many of these to be even more common and widely accepted. Wireless Internet access continues to saturate our world, and new display technologies are evolving to provide new ways to access the incredible amount of information we consume. In the meantime, we’ll pay attention to some of the predictions for 2020, so in ten years we can come back and smirk at the ones that failed to come to fruition.